Crypto’s Oct. 10 plunge appears extra like a stress take a look at than a regime change, Bitwise Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougan wrote in his Oct. 14 memo.
Hougan hyperlinks the sell-off to a late-Friday submit from President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese language items; with equities shut, he wrote, merchants funneled response into the always-open crypto market. As costs slid, he mentioned, extremely leveraged positions had been liquidated in sequence, deepening the transfer.
By his tally, roughly $20 billion in leverage was worn out—the most important such unwind in crypto’s historical past — with bitcoin down as a lot as 15% earlier than rebounding close to $115,000 by Monday. Some majors fell additional intraday, together with SOL, which he mentioned briefly dropped about 40%.
From there, Hougan centered on whether or not something broke. He wrote that channel checks throughout custodians and liquidity suppliers confirmed losses however no collapses at main gamers resembling hedge funds or outstanding market makers — one motive he thinks the rebound was swift.
He then assessed the market’s “plumbing.” In line with the memo, decentralized venues together with Uniswap, Hyperliquid, and Aave reported regular operations by means of the volatility, whereas some centralized platforms stumbled; Hougan mentioned Binance later refunded merchants by almost $400 million. Taken collectively, he argued, crypto’s infrastructure carried out in addition to — if not higher than — conventional markets might need underneath related pressure.
Investor habits was the ultimate inform. Hougan wrote that his inbox stayed unusually quiet; media and social feeds had been vigorous, however institutional purchasers largely sat on their palms. In his view, that calm diminished the chances of a cascading unwind and helped the market reset shortly as soon as the coverage tone cooled.
As a result of none of crypto’s foundations modified — no breach in safety, no core expertise failure, and no deterioration within the regulatory backdrop — Hougan concludes the episode doesn’t alter the long-term path.
He factors to the identical structural drivers he has emphasised all yr: clearer guidelines, rising institutional allocations, stablecoins’ rising function in funds and accelerating tokenization of conventional property.
Yr to this point, he wrote, bitcoin is up 21% and the Bitwise 10 Massive Cap Crypto Index is up 22%.
Close to time period, he expects thinner liquidity as market makers regroup — situations that may exaggerate strikes in both path — earlier than consideration returns to fundamentals.
