Bitcoin hovered close to the mid-$100,000s on Thursday, Oct. 23, as Customary Chartered’s international head of digital belongings analysis Geoffrey Kendrick warned {that a} transfer under $100,000 by this weekend “appears inevitable”—whereas including that any break could possibly be fleeting the final final time bitcoin is ever under six figures. The remarks, delivered in a mid-week shopper be aware and shared by The Block, body a tactical pullback inside a still-intact macro bull thesis the financial institution has championed for months.
Final-Ever Bitcoin Dip Underneath $100,000 Forward
Kendrick’s message juxtaposes near-term warning with longer-term conviction. In the identical analysis cycle the place Customary Chartered reiterated a goal of $200,000 by year-end—hinging on ETF demand, company treasury uptake, and a friendlier coverage backdrop—the strategist has now flagged an air-pocket towards sub-$100,000 because the market digests October’s sell-off and a tepid bounce. “A decline under $100,000 now seems ‘inevitable,’” Kendrick mentioned on Wednesday, whereas stressing that any dip needs to be short-lived and certain the “last-ever probability to purchase BTC for lower than six figures.”
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The recalibration follows an early-October swing that noticed bitcoin fail to carry above its current native excessive—Kendrick cited the Oct. 10 risk-off break and the absence of a powerful reflex rally—shifting the financial institution’s focus to the place the market bottoms relatively than whether or not it instantly resumes pattern.
Within the newest be aware, Kendrick pointed to a handful of signposts for a base-building part, together with monitoring capital rotation between gold and bitcoin and the trajectory of US greenback liquidity and quantitative tightening. He additionally noticed that bitcoin has revered its 50-week transferring common since early 2023, a degree he views as an necessary longer-duration line within the sand.
The near-term crosscurrents complicate, however don’t upend, Customary Chartered’s cycle map. As lately as July 2, the financial institution informed shoppers it anticipated the most important greenback rally on report within the second half of 2025, with bitcoin at $200,000 by Dec. 31. That framing—ETF inflows, company balance-sheet adoption, and regulatory normalization because the dominant drivers—stays the core of Kendrick’s upside case, at the same time as he concedes {that a} transient journey underneath $100,000 is now possible. “The decline may mark the final time to ever purchase BTC for six figures,” the newest dispatch emphasised.
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Market context is aligned with the cautionary near-term tone. Over the previous two weeks, bitcoin has shed roughly ten %, with spot buying and selling in the present day round $108,000 as liquidity thins into the weekend and macro sensitivity to coverage headlines stays elevated.
What issues from right here is whether or not the affirmation indicators Kendrick highlighted start to line up. A decisive enchancment in greenback liquidity situations, sustained proof of rotation again into bitcoin on the expense of gold, and preservation of higher-timeframe pattern buildings would validate the “final time under $100,000” declare.
Absent these, a deeper retracement can’t be dominated out, however that state of affairs would signify a deviation from the financial institution’s printed roadmap relatively than its base case. For now, Customary Chartered’s message is unambiguous: brace for a dip underneath six figures, however deal with it—quoting Kendrick immediately—as “the last-ever probability to purchase BTC for lower than six figures,” offered the medium-term catalysts reassert.
At press time, BTC traded at $109,953.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
