Arthur Hayes as we speak urged Zcash holders to drag cash from exchanges and transfer them into shielded addresses.
The previous BitMEX CEO additionally disclosed that ZEC is now his second-largest place after Bitcoin. He framed the commerce round lowering trade balances and leaning into Zcash’s shielded swimming pools, which slows how rapidly cash recycle again into order books.
When you maintain $ZEC on a CEX, withdraw it to a self-custodial pockets and defend it.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 12, 2025
The timing issues as a result of Zcash’s third halving lands this month, reducing issuance from 3.125 to 1.5625 ZEC per block.
That’s a right away 50% discount in new provide. Gate.io’s primer particulars the cadence, with the block subsidy drop setting each day issuance close to 1,800 ZEC from roughly 3,600 ZEC earlier than the occasion. For merchants who assume in flows, Hayes’ name addresses the opposite facet of the ledger.
The transfer shifts present provide from available trade balances to self-custody, then into shielded swimming pools the place turnover tends to be decrease.
Halving, shielding, and a tightening ZEC float
A new report revealed in early November focuses on Zcash’s zero-knowledge structure and the “encrypted cash at scale” framework that funds use to place the asset inside a Bitcoin-adjacent thesis.
That analysis, together with a number of market trackers, highlights the datapoint that animates Hayes’ instruction. The quantity of ZEC in shielded swimming pools has climbed previous roughly 4.5–5.0 million ZEC, equal to about 27–30% of circulating provide, with a noticeable share shifting into the newer Orchard pool in latest weeks.
The latest leg increased noticed about 1 million ZEC shielded inside a brief window throughout the run-up. That helps the concept that behavior formation round shielding can alter market microstructure by shrinking the tradable float.
The mechanism is simple. Cash held on centralized exchanges can be found to hit bids. Cash withdrawn to self-custody transfer out of rapid circulation, and cash then shielded in Zcash’s privateness swimming pools show decrease near-term spend chance.
The result’s a narrower float that may have an effect on depth, slippage, and the price of carrying foundation, particularly when issuance is being reduce in half.
Regulation, venue danger, and ZEC’s combat to remain listable
The “elective privateness” design is central right here. Zcash helps each clear and shielded exercise, and unified addresses in manufacturing wallets have lowered the operational burden for switching between modes.
Some venues body this combine as extra threadable with compliance than default-private methods, reminiscent of Monero, which have confronted heavier delistings since 2024.
Coverage and venue danger take heart stage. The European Union’s Anti-Cash Laundering Regulation has been reported to be advancing restrictions on privateness cash and nameless crypto accounts, with the applying focused for July 1, 2027.
Particulars will transfer by way of technical requirements and supervisory steering, and the pathway is a reputable trajectory fairly than a closing edict as we speak.
In parallel, the Monetary Motion Job Power’s 2025 focused replace emphasizes the implementation of the Journey Rule for digital asset service suppliers, increasing data-sharing necessities for transfers involving custodians. FATF says enforcement gaps stay, and regulators need tighter controls on the metadata that accompanies buyer flows.
These vectors land immediately on trade coverage. The spring 2025 episode, during which Binance floated a vote-to-delist ZEC, although it didn’t comply with by way of, demonstrated how compliance assessments and venue governance can disrupt liquidity and market entry. That debate moved value and sentiment earlier than the established order was restored.
Three near-term paths for ZEC’s post-halving market
In opposition to that backdrop, three near-term eventualities are in play. Over the following one to a few months, the halving cuts new provide whereas the privateness bid persists. The shielded share climbs from roughly 27–30% to the low 30s, and centralized venues proceed to see web outflows into self-custody.
That blend tightens the efficient float, retains realized volatility elevated, and periodically widens the premise on ZEC perpetuals as market makers cost extra to warehouse danger throughout bursts of skinny top-of-book depth.
If European venues pre-empt AMLR, a second path emerges the place a number of EU-facing exchanges prohibit ZEC spot or withdrawals for regional customers forward of ultimate rulemaking. That might skinny native order books, increase unfold volatility, and open the door to momentary value gaps between onshore and offshore pairs, echoing the venue fragility highlighted throughout the Binance episode.
The reflexive case is a privateness flywheel. Hayes’ “withdraw and defend” turns into a norm, Orchard’s share of defending grows, and the 30–90 day spend fee for shielded cash stays under clear cohorts.
In that setup, the tradable float can shrink quicker than issuance can replenish, and rallies prolong on lighter asks as market makers widen quotes to compensate for stock danger.
Tracing ZEC’s shielded surge by way of float and liquidity math
Protection from Coinglass on the latest shielded surge supplies the proof path for that inference.
A easy thought experiment helps floor the numbers in actuality. If the circulating provide is held fixed and shielded share rises by 5 share factors, and if shielded cash spend at half the 90-day fee of clear cash, then efficient sell-side liquidity can fall by roughly 7–10% earlier than the halving’s 50% issuance reduce takes impact.
This isn’t a forecast. It’s a framework to consider depth, slippage, and the price of executing measurement when a bigger fraction of cash is functionally idle.
To trace the availability mechanics across the occasion window, the next before-and-after view focuses on what’s measurable with out hypothesis. Issuance numbers are mechanical, shielded share makes use of ranges reported in latest protection, and the desk leaves placeholders for venue reserve knowledge and foundation that desks can populate with their very own snapshots.
| Metric | Pre-halving | Submit-halving | Supply/notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Block subsidy (ZEC) | 3.125 | 1.5625 | In response to Gate.io Study |
| Issuance per day (ZEC) | ~3,600 | ~1,800 | 1152 blocks/day × subsidy |
| Shielded share of provide | ~27–30% | Look ahead to ~32–35% situation | In response to Coinglass; situation band |
| Shielded pool combine | Orchard share rising | Monitor continued Orchard progress | Shielding flows |
| Aggregated CEX reserves | Populate from desk snapshots | Populate from desk snapshots | Venue-specific monitoring |
| Perp foundation | Populate from desk snapshots | Look ahead to episodic widening | Occasion-driven liquidity |
Design trade-offs will form listability as AMLR and Journey Rule enforcement harden. Zcash’s elective privateness and unified deal with mannequin can carry compliance metadata by way of VASPs when wanted, whereas nonetheless enabling end-to-end encrypted transfers between self-custodied customers.
Monero’s default privateness raises a unique set of controls, which is why delisting stress has diverged throughout the 2 over the previous eighteen months. Of privacy-coin positioning in 2025–26, this break up is central to survivability on main venues.
Merchants watching the halving window will give attention to whether or not miners pre-sold into the occasion, whether or not hashpower wavers after the subsidy reduce, and the way a lot of the incremental shielding lands in Orchard. They may also watch whether or not venue coverage statements within the EU and UK begin to pre-empt AMLR milestones.
On the coverage facet, FATF follow-ups and any US FinCEN proposals that contact private-transfer thresholds would add friction in the event that they explicitly goal shielded flows by way of custodians.
In the marketplace construction facet, order-book depth by venue, the focus of ZEC/USDT liquidity offshore, and foundation habits throughout outsized strikes will present whether or not Hayes’ instruction is translating right into a persistent float squeeze or a fragmented market with wider spreads.
