My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing whereas worth bleeds
I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one easy concept, Bitcoin nonetheless strikes in cycles, and the subsequent actual “that is the low” second tends to reach when miner economics and flows line up on the similar time.
It’s now Jan. 30, 2026, and the sincere replace is that this, the variables I care about look extra confused than they did after I printed, and the tape has not delivered the type of panic worth print that makes these variables matter to everybody directly.
Considerably paradoxically, my ‘medium-term bear thesis’ was meant to be long-term bullish. The concept being that we may get a brief, sharp bear market with max ache adopted by a sustained, multi-year bull run. Nonetheless, the value is not fairly matching with the alerts proper now.
Bitcoin is hovering across the low $80,000s (after falling to $81,000 in a single day) as I write this, which suggests my high-$40ks zone has not even come into sight but.
That disconnect is the story.
As a result of beneath the value, the elements of the system that pay for Bitcoin’s safety, and the elements that transfer institutional measurement, are appearing like winter already arrived.
The winter feeling is coming from charges, not the chart
Begin with the safety finances, as a result of that was my authentic “fragility” declare.
On Jan. 29, miners earned about $37.22 million in each day income.
On the identical date, complete transaction charges paid per day have been about $260,550.
Do the maths and also you get the temper music, charges are roughly 0.7% of miner income.
That’s not “charges are weak,” that’s “charges are principally absent,” within the sense that the payment market is contributing nearly nothing to the price of securing the chain on a day-to-day foundation.
Even the stay mempool image appears sleepy. The projected next-block median payment fee is round 0.12 to 0.14 sat/vB proper now.
So when folks ask why I hold circling again to miner economics, it’s as a result of that is what a payment ground failing appears like in actual time. The community leans on issuance, issuance steps down on schedule, and every part else has to select up the slack later.
The ETF window has been a gradual leak, with just a few ugly gulps
The second leg of my framework was circulate elasticity, the concept the ETF period creates a clear, mechanical option to see danger urge for food flip.
In January, that elasticity has been pointing within the improper path.
On Farside, the previous few weeks present a number of heavy outflow prints, together with -$708.7M on Jan. 21 and -$817.8M on Jan. 29.
Whole internet flows are additionally unfavorable at -$1.095B year-to-date. That issues greater than any single day as a result of it modifications the psychology of dips. Within the soft-landing model of my thesis, the tape will get help from persistent dip shopping for via the ETF pipe. Proper now, the pipe has been taking water out.
There have been massive inexperienced days earlier within the month too, Jan. 13 at +$753.8M and Jan. 14 at +$840.6M, and people are actual, however the late-month circulate prints have been the type you are feeling on a desk.
For those who commerce for a dwelling, you recognize this sensation, worth holds up, the internals begin to rot, and everybody retains on the lookout for the second the chart lastly displays what the plumbing has been saying.
Hashrate is wobbling, miners are adapting, and that adaptation modifications conduct
One other piece of the setup is miner elasticity.
Hashrate continues to be big, nevertheless it has been swinging. On Jan. 29 the each day common is roughly 901 EH/s, down from earlier peaks this month.
That by itself doesn’t equal capitulation, and I’m not making an attempt to pressure a dramatic story onto routine variance. It does match the broader level, miners now have extra knobs to show.
An important knob is the one no one talked about in prior cycles, AI and HPC internet hosting.
When a miner indicators long-duration compute offers, that enterprise begins to look much less like a pure BTC margin machine and extra like an influence, land, and infrastructure operator that occurs to mine Bitcoin.
TeraWulf put that shift in daring print when it introduced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack for 200+ MW, with Google backstopping a big portion of obligations and receiving an fairness stake, per the corporate’s personal launch.
Riot has been exploring the identical path, together with a proper analysis to probably repurpose vital capability for AI and HPC, in line with DataCenterDynamics.
This issues for Bitcoin market construction as a result of it modifications the incentives round hashrate on the lows.
A miner with a second income stream can behave in another way beneath stress. They may curtail or redirect capability with out rapid existential stress, they may shield liquidity for buildouts, they may promote BTC extra mechanically to fund capex, they may merely cease caring about marginal hashprice in the best way a pure miner as soon as did.
That’s the elasticity I used to be pointing at, and it’s beginning to present up within the knowledge’s tone even whereas worth sits excessive.
So what’s the “state of the thesis” proper now
Right here is the cleanest means I can say it in a single breath.
The payment ground appears damaged, ETF flows have been risk-off for weeks, and the miner enterprise mannequin is evolving in a means that may amplify reflexive conduct throughout drawdowns.
These are the circumstances I wrote about.
The lacking ingredient is the half folks keep in mind, the chart dumping into the zone the place panic turns into stock switch.
Bitcoin at $82k doesn’t pressure anybody to make that call. A print within the $40ks would.
That’s the reason this replace is much less about worth targets and extra about pressure. The system is constructing pressure.
| Situation | Backside Value (USD) | Timing Window | Path Form | Key Triggers Into Low (Jan 30, 2026 standing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 49,000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing | ✅ Hashprice spot sub-$40/PH/day ✅ Charge% of miner income < 10% (excessive, ~<1% on newest prints) ✅ 20D ETF flows unfavorable (internet outflows during the last 20 buying and selling days) ⚠️ “Forwards sub-$40 for weeks” depends upon whether or not you deal with spot because the proxy, forwards have a near-dated hump |
| Comfortable-landing | 56,000–60,000 | H2 2025 | Single flush, vary | ❌ Charge% > 15% sustained (reverse, charges are very low) ❌ Secure hashrate (has proven significant variance this month) ❌ Combined to optimistic ETF flows on down days (late-Jan confirmed heavy outflows) |
| Deep minimize | 36,000–42,000 | Late 2026–Q1 2027 | Waterfall, quick | ⚠️ Macro risk-off (not a single on-chain metric, blended sign outdoors this desk) ✅ Charge drought (supported by charges and feerates) ⚠️ Miner misery (not “capitulation,” however stress seen through low hashprice) ⚠️ Persistent ETF outflows (current window unfavorable, “persistent” over longer horizon nonetheless TBD) |
The human-interest angle folks miss, miners are working two firms directly
If you scale back this to “charges are down,” it seems like a chart be aware.
In actual life it appears like operators making an attempt to maintain the lights on, negotiating energy contracts, planning buildouts, courting AI clients, juggling shareholders, and nonetheless needing to compete in essentially the most brutal hash race on earth.
A low-fee surroundings doesn’t simply weaken the safety finances, it forces miners to get inventive, and creativity introduces new behaviors into the market.
The bottom-case bear I described in November was all the time about that conduct exhibiting up concurrently circulate stress, after which worth lastly doing the factor it does when leverage and narrative crack collectively.
Proper now, two of these levers are already pulled.
What would make me say the bear is resolving early
I’m maintaining my flip-level framework, and I’m maintaining it boring on function.
- Charges must cease dwelling within the mud, the YCharts payment line must rebuild an actual ground relative to the YCharts income line.
- ETF circulate conduct wants to vary, the Farside desk wants to indicate constant dip shopping for once more, not late-month air pockets.
- Mempool circumstances must really feel alive once more, payment stress exhibiting up within the mempool medians in a means that implies actual settlement demand.
If these occur whereas worth stays elevated, the “shortest winter but” framing begins to win.
If these keep weak and worth finally breaks, the $49k fashion print stays in play as a liquidity magnet, as a result of that’s the place the customer base tends to vary character.
The place I stand right now
I don’t have the cathartic conclusion that each market story desires, as a result of the market has not given it but.
The infrastructure tells me winter circumstances are already right here.
The chart tells me the group has not felt them.
That hole is the factor to observe, as a result of gaps like this don’t normally persist perpetually.
And after they shut, they shut quick.
