Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Examine #230. The Examine tracks the technical situation of sixteen of the bigger market cap cryptocurrencies. Each week the Research will spotlight the technical adjustments of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I monitor in addition to highlights on noteworthy strikes in particular person Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. As at all times, paid subscribers will obtain this week’s unabridged Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Examine despatched to their registered e mail Sundays. Previous publications together with the Weekly ETF Research could be accessed by paid subscribers through The Market’s Compass Substack Weblog.
A proof of my goal Particular person Technical Rankings and Candy Sixteen Complete Technical Rating go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose “crypto candy 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes model* of the complete rationalization…
*The technical rating system is a quantitative strategy that makes use of a number of technical issues that embrace however should not restricted to pattern, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative power. The TR of every particular person Cryptocurrency can vary from 0 to 50. The Candy Sixteen Complete Technical Rating or “SSTTR” is the sum of the sixteen particular person TRs and could be seen as an overbought / oversold indicator in addition to a affirmation / non-confirmation indicator.
Final week the SSTTR rose 38.59% to 215.5 from 155.5, which was a 5.07% rise from the earlier week’s studying. The SSTTR has risen three weeks in a row after a studying of 84.5 4 weeks in the past which was the bottom oversold studying in 3 1/2 years marking a affirmation of the Candy Sixteen Crypto Forex lows.
Final week fourteen TRs rose, one was unchanged and just one fell in a normal enchancment of the person technical situation of the Candy Sixteen. The week earlier than, seven TRs rose, three have been unchanged and 6 fell. Final week the typical Candy Sixteen TR acquire was +3.75, including to the earlier week’s common TR acquire of +0.47. For the tenth week in a row there have been zero TRs within the “inexperienced zone” (TRs between 35 and 50).
The Relative Rotation Graph, generally known as RRGs, was developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a novel visualization software for relative power evaluation. Chartists can use RRGs to research the relative power tendencies of a number of securities in opposition to a typical benchmark, (on this case the CCi30 Index*) and in opposition to one another over any given interval (within the case under, day by day) over the previous two weeks. The ability of RRG is its potential to plot relative efficiency on one graph and present true rotation. All RRGs charts use 4 quadrants to outline the 4 phases of a relative pattern. The Optuma RRG charts rotates from Main (in inexperienced) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Bettering (in blue) and again to Main (in inexperienced). True rotations could be seen as securities transfer from one quadrant to the opposite over time. That is solely a quick rationalization of find out how to interpret RRG charts. To be taught extra, see the postscripts and hyperlinks on the finish of this Weblog.
*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an impartial workforce of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It’s a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the general progress, day by day and long-term motion of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding steady cash (extra particulars could be discovered at CCi30.com).
The chart under has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative information factors vs. the benchmark, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not the entire Candy Sixteen are plotted on this RRG Chart. I’ve achieved this for readability functions. These which I consider are of upper technical curiosity stay.
After a quick lack of Relative Energy Momentum every week in the past into the early a part of final week, Cosmos (ATOM) regained its footing and began to climb once more within the Main Quadrant registering not solely one of the best Relative Ratio vs. the CCi30 Index of the Candy Sixteen at 112.70 on the finish of final week (see the Tabulation Desk under) but in addition one of the best particular person Technical Rating at 30.5. Tron (TRX) fell into the Weakening Quadrant final week shedding Relative Energy Momentum however nonetheless it nonetheless had the second finest Relative Energy Ratio on the finish of the week. Polygon (POL) had been rising sharply within the Bettering Quadrant two weeks in the past exhibiting sturdy Relative Energy Momentum till, like ATOM, it started to lose that Momentum till it regained traction early final week and commenced to rise once more within the Main Quadrant. Solana (SOL) has left the Lagging Quadrant behind and is rising within the Bettering Quadrant.
The “Tabulation Desk” under marks the Relative Energy and Relative Energy Momentum readings of the Candy Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index on the finish of final week and the 2 previous weeks. If there was an enchancment in both the Relative Energy Ratio or the Relative Energy Momentum studying for the reason that previous week, I’ve highlighted it in inexperienced. If there was a contraction in both it’s highlighted in crimson and an unchanged studying in both will stay black. The colour-coding system has served as a warmth map over the previous three weeks highlighting both the continued enchancment, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies which are within the feedback under the RRG chart are highlighted in blue
*Friday February thirteenth to Friday February twentieth
Final week 13 of the Candy Sixteen marked absolute good points and three misplaced absolute floor. The earlier week, twelve of the Crypto Currencies we monitor within the Examine misplaced floor on an absolute foundation and gained absolute floor. Each Cosmos (ATOM) and Polygon (POL) added to the good points from the earlier week (+6.85% and +4.45% respectively). Final week the typical absolute proportion acquire was +1.78% vs. the week earlier than when the typical absolute loss was -0.91%. Each weekly common strikes exclude the 2 Indexes.
The Technical Situation Elements or TCFs are utilized within the calculation of the Particular person Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What’s proven within the excel panel under is the whole TCFs of all sixteen TRs. Just a few TCFs carry extra weight than the others, such because the Weekly Development Issue and the Weekly Momentum Think about compiling every particular person TR of every of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Due to that, the excel sheet under calculates every issue’s weekly studying as a proportion of the attainable complete.
A full rationalization of my Technical Situation Elements go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose Crypto Candy 16.
The Every day Momentum Technical Situation Issue or “DMTCF” rose final week to 81.25% or 91 out of a attainable 112. That was the third week in a row that DMTCF rose from 0 out of a attainable 112 4 weeks in the past. That “zero” studying was the primary time that the Every day Momentum Issue ever reached that excessive of an oversold situation since I started monitoring the Technical Situation Elements in September 2022.
As a affirmation software, if all eight TCFs enhance on every week over week foundation, extra of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are enhancing internally on a technical foundation, confirming a broader market transfer larger (consider an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if extra of the TCFs fall on every week over week foundation, extra of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical foundation confirming the broader market transfer decrease. Final week six TCFs moved larger, and two TCFs fell.
*The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight goal Technical Situation Elements into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and eight.
Three weeks in the past, the CCi30 Index broke under worth help afforded by the January 2024 and August 2024 intra-week lows at 11,200.00 however discovered help on the Median Line (gold dotted line) of the Commonplace Pitchfork (gold P1 by means of P3) and by the tip of week it retook the bottom again above 11,200.00. For the previous two weeks the index has traded in a good vary and has held that key worth help degree The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index continues to be falling under its sign line (middle panel) and is heading again to oversold territory. The Complete Technical Situation Crypto Issue Oscillator has recovered from the oversold lows 4 weeks in the past and has edged out of oversold territory and has overtaken the shorter-term 5-Week Transferring Common (crimson line). I would want to see it climb again above the longer-term Transferring Common in a definitive approach and overtake the January highs within the oscillator in live performance with costs rallying above first worth resistance on the 12,380 to declare that the index is “out of the woods”.
The Every day Chart of CCi30 Index additional demonstrates the tight sideways buying and selling vary that the index has been in for the higher a part of two weeks because it rose from the 9,305.38 degree. MACD has risen again above its sign line however stays in damaging territory and the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled over by means of its sign line and is monitoring decrease. There may be one optimistic technical characteristic and that’s the Candy Sixteen Every day Momentum /Breadth. It pulled again late final week however held transferring common help. Solely a rally again above the Kijun Plot and worth resistance at 12,180.00 would permit me to say that worth motion over the previous two weeks is consolidation and never distribution.
*For readers who’re unfamiliar with the technical phrases or instruments referred to within the feedback on the technical situation of the CCi30 Index can avail themselves of a quick tutorial titled, Instruments of Technical Evaluation and an in-depth complete lesson on Pitchforks is obtainable on my web site…
Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software program permits the Technical Rankings to be calculated and again examined.
To obtain a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software program go to…
Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software program permits the Technical Rankings to be calculated and again examined.
To obtain a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software program go to…
