Prediction markets are shifting from one-off bets tied to main occasions into platforms pushed by each day person engagement, in accordance with a brand new report from Bitget Pockets in partnership with Polymarket.
Buying and selling quantity on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, however the report factors to a deeper change in habits. Based mostly on exercise from 1.29 million wallets within the first quarter, customers are returning extra usually and taking part throughout a wider vary of markets, from crypto to sports activities to politics.
The info counsel progress is being pushed by frequency fairly than commerce dimension. Greater than 82% of customers traded lower than $10,000 throughout the quarter, an indication the market stays dominated by retail contributors. As a substitute of putting giant, rare bets, customers are participating in smaller trades extra usually.
“Prediction markets have gotten much less about capital and extra about constant, repeated actions,” stated Alvin Kan, Bitget Pockets’s chief working officer. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with extra faucets per day, not greater trades.”
Crypto stays the first entry level for brand new customers, accounting for almost 40% of early exercise. Its steady buying and selling and acquainted worth actions make it a pure beginning place. However as customers turn into extra lively, participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world occasions.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are now not pushed solely by spikes round main occurrences like elections. As a substitute, they’re changing into steady techniques the place customers return usually to trace and reply to altering possibilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core monetary infrastructure, distribution turns into as essential because the underlying market itself,” stated Elden Mirzoian, director of progress and partnerships at Polymarket. “We’re seeing a shift from episodic buying and selling to extra steady engagement.”
That shift can be altering how these markets are used. Costs more and more mirror real-time expectations round macroeconomic traits, politics and tradition, and are starting to look alongside conventional knowledge sources in media and monetary evaluation.
Development has accelerated shortly. Month-to-month buying and selling quantity has climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to greater than $20 billion in early 2026, whereas lively wallets have greater than tripled in six months. Business projections cited within the report estimate the market may attain $240 billion in quantity this 12 months, with a longer-term path towards $1 trillion.
As participation will increase, the main focus is shifting towards entry and usefulness. Wallets are rising as key entry factors, serving to customers uncover markets and work together with them in actual time.
