Markets braced for the upcoming launch of the FOMC assembly minutes, which then appeared to spur a risk-on and anti-USD response.
In the meantime, bitcoin surged near its all-time highs whereas greenback weak spot ensued whereas WTI crude oil held its floor above $68 per barrel.
Listed here are headlines you’ll have missed within the final buying and selling periods!
Headlines:
- API crude oil inventories confirmed shock improve of seven.1M barrels vs. anticipated 2.1M draw
- RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned that there’s an unlimited quantity of uncertainty within the international economic system
- China Shopper Worth Index Development Charge for June 2025: 0.1% y/y (0.1% y/y forecast; -0.1% y/y earlier); -0.1% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m earlier)
- China Producer Worth Index Development Charge for June 2025: -3.6% y/y (-3.0% y/y forecast; -3.3% y/y earlier)
- RBNZ stored rates of interest on maintain at 3.25% as anticipated, reiterated gradual and cautious tempo of easing forward
- Japan Machine Device Orders for June 2025: -0.5% y/y (3.5% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y earlier)
- BOE Governor Bailey assured that current steepening of yield curve has much less to do with U.Okay. economic system however that they may look into it throughout annual quantitative tightening choice
- ECB official Lane: Shifts in worldwide and home regimes are additionally related to inflation dynamics, coverage wants to make sure that exterior shocks don’t result in deviations of inflation from goal
- ECB official de Guindos expressed hopes for trade price stabilization that doesn’t have extra unfavourable influence
- German Chancellor Merz remained cautiously optimistic that EU can strike commerce cope with US
- EU reportedly closing in on a “framework of an settlement” with the US, aiming to achieve a deal earlier than August 1
- ECB official Nagel mentioned that the central financial institution ought to neither plan nor rule out additional price cuts
- U.S. Wholesale Inventories for Might 2025: -0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m earlier)
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Shares Change for July 4, 2025: 7.07M (3.85M earlier)
- June FOMC assembly minutes highlighted division amongst policymakers on scale and timing of future easing, a few members favored a July lower
- US President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil
Broad Market Worth Motion:
Greenback Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Markets began the day on a relaxed be aware, presumably digesting the earlier session’s tariffs-related headlines, with threat belongings shifting largely in ranges.
Gold remained on the again foot, extending its regular droop a number of hours into the London session earlier than turning greater simply earlier than U.S. markets opened. The safe-haven valuable metallic continued its rebound after the discharge of the FOMC assembly minutes, as requires a July price lower have been revealed.
In flip, this translated to a different leg decrease for U.S. Treasury yields, bringing the 10-year yield down 1.52% for the day, as traders possible adjusted positions to mirror stronger odds of extra aggressive Fed easing for the rest of the yr.
In the meantime, WTI crude oil loved a pop greater as London markets opened to lingering considerations about Purple Sea assaults by Houthi militants, holding geopolitical tensions elevated and international provide jitters in play. The commodity returned its intraday positive factors earlier than the U.S. session, however the rally resumed even after the EIA report printed a shock construct in inventories whereas USD weak spot got here in play.
U.S. equities additionally had a bullish response to revived expectations of extra Fed rate of interest cuts, with the S&P 500 index up 0.61% and the Nasdaq closing out with a 0.95% achieve. Bitcoin staged a a lot steeper climb to commerce near all-time highs on a mixture of risk-taking and a greenback selloff.
FX Market Conduct: U.S. Greenback vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The greenback had a messy run all through the day, with main foreign money pairs chopping round main as much as the discharge of the FOMC assembly minutes.
USD began the day on barely stronger footing, presumably retaining a few of its upside momentum from the sooner buying and selling session, though NZD/USD managed to pop sharply greater throughout the RBNZ choice. China’s upbeat headline CPI launch additionally led to some positive factors for AUD/USD, however these have been rapidly erased because the PPI determine fell wanting estimates.
Greenback rallies appeared to hit a peak a number of hours earlier than London markets opened, as profit-taking in all probability occurred, earlier than one other temporary wave greater was seen. From there, USD edged progressively decrease throughout the U.S. session, extending its droop because the FOMC minutes pointed to stronger odds of extra aggressive Fed price cuts down the road.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar
- Germany Shopper Worth Index Development Charge Last at 6:00 am GMT
- Euro space ECB Cipollone Speech at 7:00 am GMT
- U.S. Preliminary Jobless Claims at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Musalem Speech at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Pure Gasoline Shares Change for July 4, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Waller Speech at 5:15 pm GMT
- U.Okay. BOE Breeden Speech at 5:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Daly Speech at 6:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Stability Sheet at 8:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Enterprise NZ PMI at 10:30 pm GMT
There’s not a lot on the docket by way of market-moving financial releases at the moment, however it’s price noting {that a} handful of Fed officers (Musalem, Waller, Daly) are scheduled to provide testimonies and certain drop hints on their coverage outlook.
Higher keep looking out for USD volatility throughout these speeches, in addition to potential swings in market sentiment from trade-related headlines. As all the time, keep nimble and don’t overlook to take a look at our Foreign exchange Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
