Constancy’s Jurrien Timmer stated Bitcoin might have accomplished one other halving cycle in each value and time, and he positioned help within the $65,000–$75,000 zone.
Sharing a “Bitcoin analogs” chart, the Constancy director of world macro wrote,
“Whereas I stay a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin might nicely have ended one other 4-year cycle halving section, each in value and time.”
He added that October’s excessive close to $125,000 match historic bull-market alignments and that “Bitcoin winters have lasted a couple of 12 months,” making 2026 a possible “12 months off.”
Bitcoin analogs level to a late-cycle cooling section as time catches up with value
The chart bands Bitcoin’s historical past into bull (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (pink blocks) regimes, then overlays prior-cycle “prime analogs” (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle advances have tended to roll right into a cooling window.
Its core message is that the time element has stored tempo with the worth element.
Prior peaks cluster right into a topping window adopted by a retracement section that may run near a 12 months, which is why Timmer tied his name to each the rally’s length and the height’s stage.
That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework specified by CryptoSlate’s cycle-clock evaluation, which tracked a 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 print close to $126,200 arrived contained in the projected window.
It was adopted by stalled follow-through and broad-range commerce, with key help close to $108,000.
Newer tape has examined whether or not the post-peak section is popping right into a deeper reset.
A liquidity and positioning learn famous Bitcoin’s Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to keep up leveraged longs.
The identical report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in month-to-month sell-side stress as older cash returned to exchanges into softer demand.
It additionally highlighted a cost-basis focus, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a stage merchants monitor for holder habits and suggestions loops from pressured promoting.
Indicators of a post-peak reset, and the way deep it might go
Timmer’s $65,000–$75,000 band additionally falls contained in the drawdown math offered in CryptoSlate’s bear-band mannequin.
The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of round 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives might change the trail whereas leaving room for significant draw back.
Utilizing a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone round $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that accommodates Timmer’s help zone and ties it to a clear vary moderately than a single level goal.
The identical math implies a low window that would land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historic length bands.
| 2026 state of affairs | What it appears to be like like | Value zone | What to look at |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off-year” winter (Timmer) | Vary commerce, decrease highs, liquidation wicks | $75k–$65k (contained in the ~$82k–$57k drawdown band) | ETF flows keep combined to detrimental, repeated help exams, tight liquidity |
| Shallower reset | Drawdown, then uneven base-building | Higher half of the ~$82k–$57k band, drifting towards the mid-$60ks | Outflows stabilize, actual yields ease, fewer pressured sellers |
| Tail-risk deleveraging | Quick unwind with stress narratives taking maintain | Beneath the band, with a $49k print outlined in one draw back thesis | Persistently weak demand, heavier change inflows, impaired threat urge for food |
| Cycle extension | Re-acceleration after reclaiming damaged ranges | Again above the prior vary, difficult the post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal by means of flows and breakout habits, fading promote stress |
The most important level of rivalry is whether or not the four-year template stays a workable baseline or whether or not market construction has diluted it.
In feedback on the cycle’s fading affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory progress have diminished the boom-bust mechanics that after outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over an extended horizon, a view that clashes with the thought of 2026 as a delegated “off-year.”
Why 2026’s macro backdrop might flip ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant value driver
Even when cycle timing weakens, macro situations can nonetheless form the trail as a result of they affect ETF movement habits.
A 2026 macro outlook cited Financial institution of America’s base case for two.4% US actual GDP progress in 2026 and a charges regime easing towards the mid-3% vary by end-2026, a backdrop that may hold actual yields mildly constructive.
The identical piece famous that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by greater than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a main transmission channel for shifts in yields and the greenback into spot demand.
For 2026, the near-term choice factors cluster round the place holders’ and flows’ help meet.
The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a primary stress check for positioning, whereas the $76,000 help map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framing is that if the final section resulted in each value and time, the following section is a winter that may final a couple of 12 months, with help centered within the $65,000–$75,000 area.
