A number of weeks in the past, I revealed an essay titled, Klarna: Sorry, However I Advised You So.
Within the essay, I walked you thru Klarna’s IPO, defined why traders had been salivating over it — then confirmed how traders obtained punched within the mouth when the inventory fell off a cliff.
I didn’t take any pleasure in saying “I advised you so.” However the truth is, Klarna’s inventory efficiency wasn’t an outlier. It wasn’t dangerous luck. And it wasn’t a one-off. It’s a part of a giant, predictable sample — a sample I’ve been warning you about for years.
Then, final week, Bloomberg dropped a truth-bomb that proves my level much more forcefully.
So seize your espresso. You’re about to see why the IPO window, as soon as the last word “wealth machine” for on a regular basis traders, has turn into a entice…
And also you’re about to study the place the true income are hiding as a substitute.
When “Sizzling IPOs” Cool Off… Quick
Bloomberg’s report was blunt. It began with this line:
“The inventory costs of current listings comparable to Gemini Area Station Inc., Fermi Inc., Navan Inc., and Stubhub Holdings Inc. have rapidly pale to ranges under the place they went public.”
Learn that once more. Not simply “got here down a bit.” Not simply “gave again some beneficial properties.” As a substitute, the shares of those corporations fell under their IPO costs — they usually did so rapidly.
This implies anybody who purchased shares on Day 1, and even within the first few weeks, is already sitting on losses.
However Bloomberg didn’t cease there. Because it seems, even the so-called huge winners of 2025 — those that TV anchors breathlessly reported on, those analysts hyped, those retail traders chased — have gotten hammered.
Bloomberg: “Even this yr’s high-flying debuts like CoreWeave Inc., Circle Web Group Inc., and Figma Inc. have confronted a bruising lately.”
Take into consideration that. These had been the good ones. These had been the IPOs that “labored.”
But even they couldn’t maintain up.
Wait — Isn’t the IPO Presupposed to Be the Begin of the Celebration?
In the event you’re new to investing, or new to investing early, right here’s a fast historical past lesson:
For many years, the IPO was the second when the general public lastly obtained a good shot.
Early workers obtained their payday… funding bankers strutted round like kings… reporters known as it “The Subsequent Huge Factor” — and in the meantime, on a regular basis traders may lastly purchase shares of corporations that had been locked up in personal markets for years.
The thought was that personal traders took the early danger. And public traders obtained the early reward.
However these days are gone. These days, the get together occurs lengthy earlier than the IPO.
Staff, VCs, private-equity companies, even hedge funds scoop up shares years upfront. They experience the expansion. They experience the hype. They experience the surge as an organization’s valuation soars from $5 million or $10 million to a “unicorn” value $10 billion and even $100 billion or extra.
By the point you lastly get an opportunity to purchase? Everybody else is already heading for the exits.
As trade funding platform EquityZen wrote lately, “Traditionally, the IPO was the chance for upside. Right now, the IPO is usually the exit.”
In different phrases, the IPO is not the beginning line. It’s the end line — for different folks.
What’s the Resolution?
So if IPO traders are shedding, and personal traders are successful, the trail ahead is clear:
Cease making an attempt to win the sport that Wall Road has already rigged. As a substitute, begin investing earlier than the IPO.
Bear in mind — that doesn’t imply you must throw darts at each personal firm with a cool brand. But it surely does imply that you must:
- Get some publicity to early-stage startups.
- Get some publicity to fast-growing late-stage corporations.
In different phrases, get publicity to personal offers earlier than an organization’s valuation is already inflated by the IPO hype-machine. For this reason I’ve spent the previous decade — and hundreds of pages of analysis — educating readers how you can entry pre-IPO alternatives.
It’s the place the true wealth is being created immediately. It’s the place tomorrow’s winners are discovered. And it’s the place traders nonetheless have an edge.
The Klarna Lesson — Multiplied and Strengthened
If Klarna was one knowledge level…
And Gemini, Fermi, Navan, StubHub, CoreWeave, Circle, and Figma are seven extra…
The decision is evident: Submit-IPO traders aren’t shedding as a result of they made the incorrect picks. They’re shedding as a result of they confirmed up too late.
The market isn’t damaged. The timing is.
So the following time Wall Road dangles a “sizzling IPO” in entrance of you?
Smile politely. Step apart. And keep in mind:
The massive cash — the life-changing cash — goes to those that obtained in years earlier.
And that’s precisely the place we’ll hold focusing.
Finest Regards,
Founder
Crowdability.com
