Markets enter the second week of October in opposition to the backdrop of the U.S. authorities shutdown, when, because of the absence of an agreed funds, a part of federal companies ceased operations. Consequently, the publication of September’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and different labour market indicators has already been delayed. The U.S. ISM Providers PMI fell from 52.0 to 50.0 in September, indicating slowing development momentum and growing the probability of Federal Reserve price cuts. Within the euro space, headline inflation as measured by the Shopper Value Index (CPI) rose to 2.2% y/y, which, quite the opposite, factors to a attainable freeze in ECB price changes.
💶 EUR/USD
The euro held regular final week. Weak U.S. knowledge stored the greenback below strain, with the pair buying and selling in a slim 1.1682-1.1778 vary and shutting at 1.1741. This week, market focus will shift to Eurozone retail gross sales, German industrial manufacturing, and the ECB minutes. A assured maintain above 1.1700 helps a cautious bullish bias with potential towards 1.1920, whereas a break under assist at 1.1650 carries dangers of decline towards 1.1525-1.1550.
₿ BTC/USD
Over the previous week, bitcoin gained practically 12%, climbing from $110,847 to $124,009. The main cryptocurrency got here simply in need of updating its all-time excessive of $124,559. The rally was fuelled by the identical elements supporting gold: liquidity considerations, a weaker greenback, and portfolio diversification amid uncertainty within the U.S. and world markets. A powerful influx into spot ETFs and a shift of institutional traders towards different property had been among the many key drivers of the bullish momentum. On Saturday, bitcoin traded round $122,500. A decisive breakout above $124,000 might push the worth additional towards $137,000, whereas failure to carry above $117,000 dangers a pullback to the $110,000 space.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude ended final week at $64.23 per barrel, persevering with its decline amid weak demand and OPEC+ discussions weighing on sentiment. Key assist lies within the $64.80–65.00 space, and if bears handle to maintain the worth under this degree, it is going to flip from assist into resistance, opening the way in which towards $62.50-63.00. Nonetheless, it isn’t excluded that bulls might regain management and the worth might once more rise towards $69.00-70.00 throughout the cyclical swings of current months.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold prolonged its rally for the seventh consecutive week, peaking at $3,897 per ounce and shutting Friday at $3,887. Demand is underpinned by safe-haven flows and decrease U.S. yields. The $3,900 mark is seen as the subsequent key threshold, and it’s extremely possible that bulls will make each effort to succeed in the psychologically necessary $4,000 degree. Regardless of the medium-term outlook for additional development, merchants stay cautious on account of correction dangers ought to the greenback strengthen. Robust U.S. knowledge might drive the worth right down to $3,800 and probably decrease – into the $3,630-3,700 zone.
📌 Conclusion
At the beginning of the second week of October, EUR/USD stays regular with average upside danger whereas holding above 1.1700, gold stays close to file ranges with dip-buying curiosity intact, bitcoin trades just under its all-time excessive, and Brent crude stays below strain.
As for key financial occasions, on Monday, October 6, the market focus will probably be on Eurozone retail gross sales knowledge. On Wednesday, October 8, German industrial manufacturing figures will probably be launched. On Thursday, October 9, traders await the publication of the ECB’s newest assembly minutes, whereas all through the week the primary drivers will stay developments across the U.S. authorities shutdown and anticipation of U.S. labour market knowledge, which did not seem final week.
