Coinbase’s (COIN) expectations-busting third-quarter earnings report drew a spread of responses from Wall Road analysts, highlighting sharp variations in expectations for the crypto trade’s long-term progress and talent to handle prices.
The corporate posted $1.05 billion in transaction income and $801 million in adjusted Ebitda, each forward of consensus estimates. Analysts throughout the board agreed that derivatives buying and selling, subscription companies and the combination of Deribit helped drive the beat. From there, opinions diverged.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s efficiency, however flagged rising prices and shrinking margins heading into the fourth quarter. He cited a step-up in working bills, pushed by hiring and acquisitions like fundraising platform Echo, as key challenges. Budish lowered his worth goal to $357 from $361, citing decrease earnings estimates for 2026.
Clear Road’s Owen Lau was extra upbeat. He raised his goal to $415 from $405, arguing that Coinbase is well-positioned to profit from a rising position in cross-border B2B funds. Lau pointed to Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify, and mentioned stablecoin-based service provider funds might take market share from conventional pathways. He additionally flagged regulatory progress, such because the attainable passage of the Readability Act within the U.S. subsequent yr, as a possible “Altcoin Summer time” catalyst.
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed the optimism, preserving a purchase ranking and $421 goal. He framed the earnings as a return to kind, with Coinbase demonstrating working leverage as crypto markets warmed. He emphasised the significance of subscription income, which grew 14% quarter-over-quarter, and the corporate’s position within the broader institutional adoption of digital belongings.
Citi additionally struck an upbeat tone, highlighting momentum throughout the trade’s increasing enterprise traces.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen mentioned they have been inspired by the corporate’s progress in signing new “onchain-as-a-service” partnerships, together with with Samsung and a number of other banks. The report added that the corporate’s “Every thing Alternate” imaginative and prescient is beginning to take form, with choices buying and selling now dwell and futures volumes set to rise.
Pending digital asset reforms might enhance market entry, and the financial institution famous they could additionally unleash “a pent-up innovation wave”. The analysts reaffirmed their purchase ranking on the inventory and their $505 worth goal.
Compass Level’s Ed Engel, nonetheless, warned that value progress outpacing income places Coinbase in a susceptible place ought to crypto markets cool. He slashed his 2026 Ebitda estimate and lowered his goal to $266 from $277. Engel was skeptical that progress in stablecoin and staking revenues would proceed, particularly if rates of interest fall and retail crypto enthusiasm wanes.
Dealer Bernstein famous that the outcomes have been beneath their street-high expectations, however mentioned the corporate is on the “path of a generational enterprise buildout and its destiny isn’t just merely pushed by crypto worth motion.”
The rollout of the Base app to hundreds of thousands of customers, alongside the launch of a Base token, might mark a “Crypto Venmo” second for Coinbase, the report mentioned, signaling a serious step towards mainstream adoption. The dealer reiterated its outperform ranking on the shares and $510 worth goal.
The most important level of settlement was Coinbase’s increasing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related merchandise. However even that got here with caveats as analysts famous declining fee charges and growing competitors from Circle Web (CRCL), which is attempting to tug extra quantity of its USDC stablecoin onto its personal platform.
In the end, Coinbase’s near-term success is evident. However as crypto markets stay unstable and the corporate spends closely on progress, the long-term outlook hinges on whether or not new income streams like B2B funds and tokenized belongings can scale quick sufficient to justify the funding.
Value targets now vary from $266 to $510, a niche that displays each the chance Coinbase is chasing and the dangers if it stumbles.
