What the S&P 500, VIX, and ARKK are Telling Us Now | CappThesis

Whereas the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a damaging reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Road’s concern gauge, logged a optimistic reversal. That is fairly typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

This is what makes it fascinating: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the final 4 days. Earlier than the noon pivot, the VIX hit its lowest degree since February 21, 2025. And whereas that wasn’t the low in February, it was shut. Because the chart beneath depicts, again then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a number of days earlier than the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming promote sign for equities. The S&P 500 was set to comply with via on the large cup-with-handle sample breakout, despite the fact that two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

In the end, the mixture of the S&P 500 failing to get a lot increased than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing close to assist set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, in fact, news-induced, however the market’s character had been altering since December, when breadth first took a serious hit.

So, with the VIX nearer to that very same assist zone now than it has been at any time the previous few months and the S&P 500 again above 6,000, the pendulum has swung again close to the intense ranges the place the fireworks started. However there are two main variations now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up properly in December, January, and February (after which once more in March). However they’re working now.

Let’s not take this with no consideration. The S&P 500 begins the day with three reside bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside goal (5,840).

Most significantly, the index has prolonged above the breakout zones of the 2 largest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts beneath). This implies it may endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would stay in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Nonetheless No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged only one 1% decline, which now spans 35 buying and selling days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That is a fee of two.8% vs. 28%. We had actually 10 occasions extra 1% declines from January to April 21.

We did not see too many 1% losses within the first few weeks of 2025 both (see chart beneath). However with the index repeatedly failing at resistance, it simply could not leverage the low-volatility surroundings prefer it did from late 2023 via late 2024. As described above, within the final two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, may all of this fully flip once more with a massively stunning “unknown unknown” headline? There’s at all times that threat. And we all know concerning the massive assortment of promote alerts on the market (MACD and Demark).

All of this means a respite is due. Bulls and bears appear to agree about that. What they do not agree upon is the severity of that subsequent pullback. There is not any use in attempting to foretell how far or how damaging will probably be, nevertheless. So long as the bullish patterns stay intact, the nascent uptrend has an opportunity to proceed within the months to return.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Sturdy Run

Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at one of many extra fashionable growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Regardless of ending off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight achieve yesterday and is now up eight of the final 9 buying and selling periods. Over that point, it has absolutely leveraged the bull flag we talked about two weeks in the past. The goal from that sample is close to $67.

ARKK additionally logged its third straight buying and selling field breakout in the previous few days. So, from a short-term sample perspective, issues have continued to work for the inventory.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now formally overbought for the primary time since final December. Over the past 12 months, this is how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Final July, ARKK hit its summer season high only a few days after turning into overbought. In November and December (whereas ARKK’s upswing continued via mid-February), the ETF pulled again to ranges beneath the place the relative power index (RSI) first hit 70 over the following days/weeks each occasions.

In different phrases, this isn’t the perfect buying and selling setup for brand new short-term longs. We count on the risk-reward to enhance after the following pullback.

ARKK can also be approaching the higher threshold of its massive two-year buying and selling channel, which may gradual issues down quickly.

The Backside Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility remains to be comparatively low, and progress performs like ARKK are wanting robust, though they could be due for a pullback within the close to time period. Control the chart patterns which are forming and search for funding alternatives on pullbacks.