Bitcoin (BTC) almost touched $98,000 in a single day earlier than settling round $96,000, up roughly 5.5% over latest classes. The rally reignited a well-known query: is that this the setup for a sustained transfer above $100,000, or one other fragile push constructed on skinny order books and positioning video games?
Market Cap $1.9T
24h Quantity $46.87B
All-Time Excessive $126,173.18
Glassnode’s newest evaluation reveals a nuanced image, the place mechanical positioning drove the latest transfer whereas broader structural demand stays uneven and liquidity stays compressed.
Provide meets demand at a important threshold
The present value sits inside a dense cluster of long-term holder provide gathered between April and July 2025, spanning roughly $93,000 to $110,000.
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals this overhead provide zone, the place rebounds since November have repeatedly stalled. Every try has encountered renewed promoting strain, stopping the worth from sustaining structural restoration.
This area has constantly served as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from sturdy bull markets.
The short-term holder’s value foundation presently stands at $98,300, reflecting the typical entry value of latest consumers. Glassnode notes that reclaiming and holding above this degree has traditionally marked the transition from corrective phases into extra sturdy uptrends.
The value’s potential to consolidate above $98,300 stays vital to revive confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.
Lengthy-term holder conduct gives context for the quantity of overhead provide the market should take in. Whereas long-term holders stay web sellers, the distribution fee has slowed materially from the aggressive promoting seen all through the second half of 2025.
Glassnode reviews that long-term holders are presently realizing roughly 12,800 BTC per week in web revenue, down from cycle peaks above 100,000 BTC per week.
This moderation suggests profit-taking stays lively however far much less aggressive than throughout prior distribution phases.
Institutional flows stabilize, spot markets enhance
Institutional balance-sheet flows have accomplished a full reset.
After extended outflows throughout spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, web flows have stabilized. Spot ETFs have turned constructive, re-establishing themselves as the first marginal purchaser.
Bitcoin ETFs register $1.5 billion in web inflows for January, with almost $1.6 billion in inflows registered between Jan. 13 and 14, in line with Farside Traders knowledge.
Spot market conduct has turned constructive. Binance and combination trade cumulative quantity delta measures have returned to a buy-dominant regime, reflecting a shift away from persistent sell-side strain.
Coinbase, which has been probably the most constant supply of promoting all through consolidation, has meaningfully slowed its distribution.
Whereas spot participation will not be but displaying the persistent, aggressive accumulation usually seen throughout full pattern growth phases, the transition again right into a net-buying posture represents a constructive structural shift.
Mechanical strikes on skinny quantity
Brief liquidations mechanically strengthened the push into the $96,000 area, however it unfolded on comparatively skinny derivatives quantity.
Glassnode notes that futures turnover has remained properly under the elevated exercise seen all through most of 2025.
The breakout occurred in a relatively mild liquidity setting the place modest positioning shifts drove disproportionately giant value responses. In sensible phrases, it didn’t take vital new capital to drive shorts out of the market and carry the worth by resistance.
This dynamic connects on to the liquidity drawback seen so as books. Aggregated 2% market depth has declined roughly 30% from 2025 highs, in line with knowledge supplier Kaiko.
On Binance particularly, 1% depth exceeded $600 million on the October 2025 peak however fell under $400 million by Dec. 20. Thinner books amplify value swings, making the tape extra delicate to giant flows and strategic positioning.
Blockchain knowledge provides texture to this narrative.
On Dec. 31, market maker Wintermute net-deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated throughout low-activity home windows.
Massive trade deposits throughout skinny hours increase the chance of outsized tape impression, particularly when books lack depth.
Nonetheless, the manipulation framing has limits. A extensively circulated declare on Dec. 30 alleged “multi-billion greenback manipulation,” however on-chain transfers referenced totaled lower than $30 million.
The higher rationalization for sharp intraday strikes is structural fragility mixed with stop-hunting somewhat than provable coordinated schemes.
$100,000 as a mechanical attractor
The $100,000 degree sits at a convergence level the place value foundation, choices publicity, and supplier hedging align. Coin Metrics notes that decision open curiosity is clustered round $100,000 strike costs for late-January expiries.
Glassnode reviews that sellers are quick gamma between roughly $95,000 and $104,000, which may reinforce upside strikes as sellers hedge by shopping for spot or futures when costs rise.
In a brief gamma setting, hedging flows not take in value strikes. As a substitute, they reinforce them.
This construction creates fragile stability. Volatility can stay low whereas value is contained, however as soon as momentum develops, strikes usually tend to speed up than fade.
With spot buying and selling across the $95,000 to $96,000 space, the worth has moved into a brief gamma zone the place sustained motion supported by quantity is extra more likely to set off directional hedging flows.
Choices conduct across the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. In brief to mid-term maturities as much as roughly three months, the decision premium purchased has considerably outweighed the decision premium bought, indicating lively demand for near-dated upside publicity.
In distinction, longer-dated maturities present the alternative conduct, as richer name premiums additional out the curve have been used as alternatives to promote upside.
This cut up suggests the market is positioning for a possible retest of the $100,000 space whereas concurrently expressing hesitation about sustained acceptance above that degree over longer horizons.
Volatility deferred, not resolved
Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL studying across the 40s.
Nonetheless, this studying masks underlying fragility. Skew continues to cost draw back threat, with the 25-delta skew remaining biased towards places, notably at mid and longer maturities.
This displays a market that’s comfy carrying publicity however unwilling to take action with out insurance coverage.
The coexistence of low volatility and unfavourable skew highlights a key pressure. Individuals will not be positioning for instant draw back, however they proceed to pay for uneven safety.
Volatility will increase progressively with maturity, suggesting uncertainty is assigned to time somewhat than to a particular near-term catalyst, in line with a market that expects short-term stability whereas remaining uncovered to latent threat.
The $100,000 check
If Bitcoin is genuinely establishing for a sustained transfer above $100,000, two situations have to align.
First, value should reclaim and maintain above the $98,300 short-term holder value foundation, inserting latest consumers again in revenue and decreasing the motivation to promote into rallies.
Second, liquidity and flows want to enhance concurrently. ETF inflows remaining constructive present one sign, however depth stabilization issues extra. If the sub-$400 million Binance 1% depth regime persists, the market stays susceptible to whipsaws.
Revenue-taking has cooled, distribution from long-term holders has slowed, and traditional late-cycle euphoria metrics aren’t flashing pink. However liquidity fragility introduces a wildcard.
Order books are measurably thinner than at October highs, and huge flows throughout low-activity home windows can produce outsized tape strikes.
The $100,000 degree issues as a result of it is the place a number of structural forces converge, akin to value foundation, choices publicity, and supplier hedging, making it a pure attractor if situations stabilize.
Whether or not Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 and holds relies upon much less on narrative and extra on whether or not the market can rebuild depth whereas sustaining constructive flows. The indications are inexperienced, distribution strain has eased, and institutional demand is stabilizing.
However the mechanics stay fragile, and the latest transfer occurred on skinny quantity with mechanical help from quick protecting.
That is the present state of play, the place modest capital can generate vital motion, however sustainability requires deeper accumulation to observe.
