Most individuals are on the lookout for the reply to at least one query: how a lot are you able to earn.
However in buying and selling, that is the incorrect query.
The fitting query shouldn’t be “how a lot are you able to earn”, however what really drives the consequence and what vary it operates in.
On this article, I’ll present what potential is constructed into the Owl Good Ranges system and what drives its efficiency in observe.
Then you may see how this is applicable to your personal buying and selling — relying on how constantly you’re able to comply with the principles and execute the system.
HOW TO EVALUATE ANY TRADING SYSTEM
To know how the result’s fashioned, you solely have to deal with two parameters:
- Threat/Reward (RR) — risk-to-reward ratio
- Winrate — proportion of worthwhile trades
It’s their mixture that determines the ultimate consequence. On the identical time, most individuals focus solely on winrate — what number of trades shut in revenue. However by itself, this metric ensures nothing.
💣 EXAMPLE 1 (Excessive winrate — LOSS)
Let’s break it down with a easy instance of 10 trades:
- 7 closed in revenue
- 3 in loss
Seems to be advantageous. However the ultimate result’s -20$.
So how does that occur?
The reply lies within the parameters constructed into the commerce. On this system (RR = 3:1):
- you danger 30$
- and earn 10$
Then the maths is straightforward:
7 × 10$ – 3 × 30$
Outcome: -20$
That is the place it turns into clear: even with a excessive winrate, you may constantly lose cash.
Now let’s see what wants to alter simply to interrupt even.
With the identical variety of trades, you must regulate the RR (for instance RR = 2:1):
- cut back the danger to twenty$
- maintain the revenue at 10$
Then:
7 × 10$ – 3 × 20$
Outcome: +10$
Right here’s an essential level most individuals miss. If you improve the danger/reward ratio (RR), trades hit revenue much less typically. In different phrases, the winrate drops.
💣 EXAMPLE 2 (Low winrate — PROFIT)
Now let’s have a look at the other state of affairs. The identical 10 trades:
The winrate is barely 30%. At first look, it appears dangerous.
However we modify the commerce logic (RR = 1:3):
- danger: 10$
- potential revenue: 30$
Let’s calculate:
3 × 30$ – 7 × 10$
Outcome: +20$
Even with fewer profitable trades, the general result’s constructive. That is precisely the place the reply to the query “how a lot are you able to earn” comes from.
On this mannequin, the consequence doesn’t rely immediately on the variety of profitable trades. It’s pushed by a number of robust entries that cowl a sequence of losses.
In observe, it appears like this:
- you might spend a part of the time at breakeven or in drawdown
- after which 1–2 trades generate a lot of the consequence
Furthermore, this mannequin doesn’t require a excessive winrate. To interrupt even, round 25% profitable trades is sufficient — 1 worthwhile commerce out of three shedding ones already retains you from shedding cash.
These two examples present a easy level. The identical market, the identical variety of trades — however fully completely different outcomes. Every thing is dependent upon what RR and Winrate are constructed into the system.
The query shouldn’t be the best way to improve the variety of profitable trades, however what risk-to-reward ratio is behind them.
That is precisely the mannequin behind Owl Good Ranges.
WHAT RR IS BUILT INTO OWL SMART LEVELS
Within the Owl Good Ranges system, the core logic is predicated on RR = 1:3. The bottom construction is 1% danger to three% revenue.
This basis doesn’t change. Due to RR = 1:3, even with a comparatively low winrate, the system can stay worthwhile.
However the winrate may be improved with out altering RR. That is the place the second degree of the system is available in.
By filtering indicators, weak and low-quality setups are eliminated.
Consequently: fewer shedding trades, increased share of profitable ones.
That is what drives a lot of the efficiency, as a result of it strengthens an already worthwhile mathematical basis.
HOW IT LOOKS WITHOUT FILTERING
To maneuver past concept, let’s have a look at an actual instance.
I’ve been sustaining buying and selling studies for the indicator since 2023, recording all trades on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD.
Let’s take one of many common months — Could 2023. And one pair — EURUSD. Beneath is a desk of all trades for that interval.
Vital: at the moment, there was no filtering system. It was simply an indicator and its indicators.
Consequently for the month:
- 7 shedding trades
- 3 worthwhile trades
Remaining consequence: +8.1% for the month on one pair.
This isn’t a most or “very best” consequence, however one of many regular working durations. In different months, the consequence could also be increased or decrease.
It’s also essential to notice that this instance reveals just one foreign money pair. The consequence may be scaled by including extra devices — on this case, the full consequence turns into the sum of all of them.
Nevertheless, this strategy additionally has a draw back.
THE MAIN DRAWBACK OF THIS APPROACH
There may be one essential level that must be addressed.
It’s not concerning the system logic, however about how it’s perceived throughout buying and selling.
With a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio, you’ll inevitably face shedding streaks. It is a regular a part of the method. However psychologically, that is arduous to deal with.
At such moments, it could really feel just like the system has stopped working, which ends up in the urge to:
- skip the following sign
- change the strategy
- or cease buying and selling altogether
The consequence on this system shouldn’t be a straight line — it’s a results of self-discipline and consistency.
For those who ignore this, you might by no means attain the trades that truly generate revenue.
HOW THIS IS APPLIED IN PROP CHALLENGES
This strategy has a key benefit — it matches nicely with PROP corporations.
The explanation lies within the necessities:
- managed danger per commerce
- drawdown management
- capability to ship constant outcomes over time
On this mannequin, what issues shouldn’t be the variety of profitable trades, however the predictability of outcomes.
Every thing comes down to at least one factor: how constantly you execute the principles and choose trades.
HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO PASS A PROP CHALLENGE
There is no such thing as a mounted timeline.
The problem is accomplished by way of particular trades, not time.
In observe, you undergo a sequence of trades, and sooner or later 1–2 setups generate the principle consequence.
This will occur shortly or take longer — every week, two, or extra.
All of it is dependent upon whether or not the market gives such alternatives.
- both by way of a brief sequence of robust trades
- or over an extended interval with a number of makes an attempt
It is a regular a part of the mannequin.
METAPHOR
This technique is like fishing. You don’t know precisely when the chunk will occur.
However when it does — the consequence comes without delay.
And making an attempt to power it solely wastes assets.
Buying and selling works the identical means. If there aren’t any correct circumstances, making an attempt to power outcomes solely results in pointless trades and elevated danger.
You could merely not final lengthy sufficient to achieve the trades that truly generate revenue.
That’s the reason within the Owl Good Ranges system, the purpose shouldn’t be fixed buying and selling, however deciding on solely the suitable circumstances.
Key benefit:
Not like fishing, the place the variety of rods is restricted, in buying and selling you may work with a number of devices concurrently.
This considerably will increase the likelihood of catching alternatives.
However the precept stays the identical — you solely act when circumstances match the system.
SUMMARY
Now you perceive what drives leads to Owl Good Ranges.
The query shouldn’t be how a lot you may earn, however how constantly you may execute this mannequin.
The construction is already there — your job is to execute it.
If you wish to discover how the system works in observe:
