Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Research #242. The Research tracks the technical situation of sixteen of the bigger market cap cryptocurrencies. Each week the Research will spotlight the technical modifications of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I monitor in addition to highlights on noteworthy strikes in particular person Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Previous publications together with the Weekly ETF Research may be accessed by paid subscribers by way of The Market’s Compass Substack Weblog.
An evidence of my goal Particular person Technical Rankings and Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose “crypto candy 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes model* of the total rationalization…
*The technical rating system is a quantitative strategy that makes use of a number of technical issues that embody however usually are not restricted to pattern, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative energy. The TR of every particular person Cryptocurrency can vary from 0 to 50. The Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating or “SSTTR” is the sum of the sixteen particular person TRs and may be considered as an overbought / oversold indicator in addition to a affirmation / non-confirmation indicator.
The Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating fell again 14.43% to 391.5 final week from 457.5 the earlier week which was the very best highest studying within the SSTTR since October of final yr.
Final week 4 of the Candy Sixteen TRs gained floor and twelve TRs pulled again. Two of the Crypto Forex TRs ended the week within the “inexperienced zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), twelve have been within the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and two fell into the “pink zone” (TRs between 0 and 15), (Stellar (XLM) and Polygon (POL). That was a lower from the earlier week when there have been 4 TRs within the “inexperienced zone” and twelve have been within the “blue zone”. The Common TR loss on the week was -4.13, reversing a portion of the earlier week’s Common TR achieve of +10.28.
The Relative Rotation Graph, generally known as RRGs, was developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a singular visualization device for relative energy evaluation. Chartists can use RRGs to research the relative energy tendencies of a number of securities towards a standard benchmark, (on this case the CCi30 Index*) and towards one another over any given interval (within the case beneath, every day) over the previous two weeks. The facility of RRG is its capability to plot relative efficiency on one graph and present true rotation. All RRGs charts use 4 quadrants to outline the 4 phases of a relative pattern. The Optuma RRG charts rotates from Main (in inexperienced) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Bettering (in blue) and again to Main (in inexperienced). True rotations may be seen as securities transfer from one quadrant to the opposite over time. That is solely a short rationalization of how one can interpret RRG charts. To be taught extra, see the postscripts and hyperlinks on the finish of this Weblog.
*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an unbiased group of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It’s a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the general development, every day and long-term motion of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding steady cash (extra particulars may be discovered at CCi30.com).
The chart beneath has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative information factors vs. the benchmark, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not the entire Candy Sixteen are plotted on this RRG Chart. I’ve achieved this for readability functions. These which I consider are of upper technical curiosity stay.
Dogecoin (DOGE) started to roll over within the Main Quadrant per week in the past final Wednesday shedding Relative Energy Momentum. Early final week the tempo of the decline accelerated (notice the gap between the every day nodes) because it fell into Weakening Quadrant shedding further Relative Energy. Uniswap (UNI) rose out of the Bettering Quadrant final Sunday gaining each Relative Energy Momentum and Relative Energy and on the finish of final week it registered one of the best Relative Energy Ratio of the Candy Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index (see the Tabulation Desk beneath). In its wake was ChainLink (LINK) when it made what I consult with as a optimistic “three quadrant transfer” by leaving the Lagging Quadrant passing by way of the Bettering Quadrant and coming into the Main Quadrant early final week.
The “Tabulation Desk” beneath marks the Relative Energy and Relative Energy Momentum readings of the Candy Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index on the finish of final week and the tip of the 2 previous weeks. If there was an enchancment in both the Relative Energy Ratio or the Relative Energy Momentum studying because the finish of the previous week, I’ve highlighted it in inexperienced. If there was a contraction in both it’s highlighted in pink and an unchanged studying in both will stay black. The colour-coding system has served as a warmth map over the previous three weeks highlighting both the continued enchancment, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies which can be within the feedback beneath the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.
*Friday Might eighth to Friday Might fifteenth
Over the previous seven days 4 of the Candy Sixteen gained absolute floor and twelve traded decrease vs, the earlier week when the CCi30 Index, the Candy Sixteen Index and all of the Candy Sixteen registered absolute worth positive aspects. Final week the common absolute proportion loss was -2.22% erasing rather less than a 3rd of the common proportion achieve the week earlier than of achieve of +6.81%. Each weekly common positive aspects and losses exclude the 2 Indexes.
The Technical Situation Components or TCFs are utilized within the calculation of the Particular person Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What’s proven within the excel panel beneath is the overall TCFs of all sixteen TRs. A number of TCFs carry extra weight than the others, such because the Weekly Pattern Issue and the Weekly Momentum Think about compiling every particular person TR of every of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Due to that, the excel sheet beneath calculates every issue’s weekly studying as a proportion of the potential complete.
A full rationalization of my Technical Situation Components go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose Crypto Candy 16.
The Each day Momentum Technical Situation Issue or “DMTCF” fell again to 47.32% or 53 out of a potential 112 from an virtually overbought studying of 86.61% studying or 97 two weeks in the past.
As a affirmation device, if all eight TCFs enhance on per week over week foundation, extra of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are bettering internally on a technical foundation, confirming a broader market transfer greater (consider an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if extra of the TCFs fall on per week over week foundation, extra of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical foundation confirming the broader market transfer decrease. On the finish of final week six of the TCFs marked decreases, and two rose.
The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight goal Technical Situation Components into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and eight.
The CCi30 Index ended the week at one of the best degree (12,369.20) because the finish of January. On an intra-week foundation, it caught its head above potential worth resistance at April 11, 2025, P2 worth pivot low for the second week in a row however, pulled again late within the week. I’ve added a second shorter-term Andrews Pitchfork (violet P1 by way of P3). The rising Decrease Parallel (stable violet line) marks vital pattern assist. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index has continued to climb greater above its sign line and the longer-term momentum measure, MACD, continues to work its means greater above its sign line however stays in detrimental territory. Though the Whole Candy Sixteen Technical Situation Issue pulled again on the finish of final week it stays in an uptrend above each rising transferring averages.
Key worth resistance at 12,380, the falling Kijun Plot (inexperienced line), and the falling Higher Parallel (stable gold line) of the longer-term Normal Pitchfork (gold P1 by way of P3) stay vital hurdles that the Index must overtake to definitively be capable of say that the CCi30 Index is certainly “out of the woods”.
After the CCi30 Index broke out of the 3-month sideways buying and selling vary introduced forth on the every day chart by surpassing the 11,910 degree and remaining above it I added a Normal Pitchfork (violet P1 by way of P3) to observe the doubtless growing worth pattern from the P1 worth pivot low. Late final week worth dutifully held assist provided by the Decrease Parallel (stable violet line) of that Pitchfork in live performance with assist provided by the earlier escape degree at 11,910 and the flattening Kijun Plot (offered inexperienced line). MACD stays above its sign line in optimistic territory, however the shorter-term 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has pulled again from close to overbought territory which is so far isn’t a priority as it really works off the close to overbought situation with out vital worth injury. Of extra technical concern is the dropping Candy Sixteen Each day Momentum / Breadth Oscillator (“SSMOMRANK”) which was capped by the longer-term transferring common. That stated, if the low within the “SSMOMRANK” stays above the low it reached on April 29th, on the P3 pivot low and the value breakout degree on the 11,910 degree it would ameliorate any technical concern concerning the value pattern. Subsequent week’s worth motion can be telling.
For readers who’re unfamiliar with the technical phrases or instruments referred to within the feedback on the technical situation of the CCi30 Index can avail themselves of a short tutorial titled, Instruments of Technical Evaluation and the three half Andrews Pitchfork Sequence out there on my web site.
Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software program permits the Technical Rankings to be calculated and again examined.
To obtain a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software program go to…
